I wish I was a gambler other than the odd Grand National flutter, as I said earlier this year both a Brexit vote would happen and Trump would be elected, not that I wanted either personally.
How can the media and the pollsters in our sophisticated age therefore have missed the signs and got both so wrong? Quite simply I think they stopped listening and started telling the wider public what they themselves wanted to believe. They also asked the wrong experts for their opinions.
The media are used to getting their own way and being able to influence on mass. In both of these recent examples, they have in my opinion failed in their duty however to call a lie a lie, to present a range of independent voices that truly represent what real people think and they have been guided by their owners' standpoint.
So what lessons can we all learn from this? I think there are many, but fundamentally if your customers or clients are telling you they don't like what you are doing or they want you to change, rather than explaining to them why you are right and carrying on, it may be a clear sign it is time to act.
This is a bit of a wake up call for all communicators and marketers. There has never been a better time to take stock and review attitudes and behaviour and your organisation's response to them.
Television networks, most notably, propped up Trump’s candidacy during the Republican primary with a hugely disproportionate amount of attention, unprecedented accommodations, and little scrutiny as he uttered falsehoods in interviews and in evening rallies carried live as breaking news events. Hosts failed to question Trump’s shaky business record, and network executives treated bigotry as just another political position to hash out among commentators.